Today, two articles really stuck out at me and I felt they should be mentioned here.

First, Onalytica had a great article on Predicting Sales from Online Buzz where they pose the question “What if you could listen to the online debate and precisely predict how much you (or your competitors) are going to sell next month or quarter?”

Second, Fast Company wrote an article challenging the conventional wisdom surrounding the relative ability of influential people to ignite social trends. Titled, “Is the Tipping Point Toast?” the article explores the research of Duncan Watts a prominent academic and current researcher with Yahoo!. The article states, “Watts believes this is because a trend’s success depends not on the person who starts it, but on how susceptible the society is overall to the trend–not how persuasive the early adopter is, but whether everyone else is easily persuaded.” Take that Malcolm Gladwell.

I found a very telling chart in MarketingSherpa’s Search Marketing Benchmark Guide 2008. The chart examined how search ROI stacks up against other marketing tactics including public relations. While 40 percent of companies felt PR delivered a good or outstanding ROI, 20 percent rated PR ROI as highly variable and the remainder felt it was a low value tactic or hard to gauge. PR ranked as the single tactic most difficult to gauge the ROI.

You don’t need to rehash the arguments of why PR is so notoriously difficult to measure. Without being directly tied to a transactional process, it is difficult to credit PR with boosting sales or decreasing costs.

Here is my prediction: PR is exactly like marketing just 5-10 years behind the curve.

Starting in the late 1990s and continuing today, marketing has come a long way in the digital age. With a vastly increased access to information, marketers are using data mining tools to extract insights from vast corporate databases, using statistics to build complex prediction models to simulate whether a campaign is likely to be successful and ultimately proving the value of their contribution.

The public relations industry must get to this point.

Digital PR is the future as it provides access to a wealth of data about customer brand perceptions, company sentiment and behaviors. For the first time companies can listen into conversations between customers about a product, engage with customers and better understand and track key influencers online.

Today, we are helping clients test messages online and validate the likely success of a campaign before the launch. In the past some big-budget campaigns have looked great on paper but flopped in the marketplace. With digital and pretesting, the chances of failure are greatly reduced.

As the depth of data that is available increases, PR will be able to have its own list of KPIs (key performance indicators), calculate the ROI and leverage complex statistical models to improve communication and better target the message.

When PR is truly accountable and can deliver hard numbers to the C-suite — increased budgets and respect will follow.

As with any major change, you will see a number of companies adapt, some fail and others become the new dominant players. Regardless, O’Dwyer’s list of the largest public relations firms will look very different in a few years.

3d-influence was created to explore digital public relations, social media and the ROI of communications campaigns in the digital age.

With an nod towards Everett Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations, our goal is to understand the process by which a message or idea is spread through online and offline channels, varying social contexts and among people with differing interests, needs and behaviors. Or, how we can send the right message to the right person in the right place at the right time.

At Diverge, we developed a proprietary process called Influence Metrics that is focused on five key pillars: research, strategy, engagement, reputation and accountability.

• Research allows you to reach audiences effectively through a foundational understanding the marketplace and key drivers.
• Strategy identifies the most effective venues to launch an idea.
• Engagement involves, excites and motivates.
• Reputation tracks online conversation and effect on a company’s brand.
• Accountability aligns tactics and goals to key business objectives and provides the tools for demonstrating campaign success.

Over the next few weeks, I’ll describe how we use this process at Diverge to uncover existing barriers and develop messages that resonate with audiences.

Feel free to post a question in the comments or let me know what you are interested in learning more about.